Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 YearsZeroHedge News

Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 Years

For the third day in a row, early weakness in futures – in this case as a result of China’s soaring, record producer price inflation – reversed and spoos rose from session lows but were still down on the session as traders awaited inflation data due later on Wednesday. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar and cryptos rose. At 7:45 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 47 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 10.25 points, or 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 68 points, or 0.42%.

Earlier, China’s Shanghai Composite fell as much as 1.7% and the Hang Seng dropped more than 1% after China’s factory inflation soared to a 26-year high. The number came just hours before today’s US CPI print is expected to rise 5.8% in October, the highest level since since December 1990, after a 5.4% increase in the previous month. The report comes a day after producer prices data showed a solid rise in October and will be scrutinized for clues on the extent to which manufacturers were passing on higher costs to consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy

Elevated inflationary pressures “would be the latest test for the Fed’s ‘transitory’ view and challenge the central bank’s stance on policy tightening,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, said in written comments. “The worry is that such stubborn inflationary pressures could choke the recovery in global demand or hasten policy tightening by major central banks.”

On Tuesday, Wall Street’s main indexes ended their long streak of record closing highs on Tuesday as Tesla tumbled and as investors booked profits from the recent run-up in gains, especially in the absence of market-moving catalysts. The declines on Wednesday came after data showed Chinese factory gate prices hit a 26-year high in October, while economic advisers to the German government said they expected the current rise in inflation to continue well into 2022.

It has been a busy premarket trading session with lots of movers. We start with Coinbase which fell 11% as analysts said the crypto exchange’s quarterly results were well below expectations. DoorDash shares surged as analysts raised price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and purchase of Finnish food-delivery startup Wolt Enterprises Oy.  Here are some other premarket movers today:

DoorDash (DASH US) shares surge 19% in U.S. premarket trading, with analysts raising their price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and its biggest ever acquisition

Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. rise premarket after Tencent reported 3Q profit that exceeded expectations even as revenue missed amid China’s crackdown on the tech industry

Tesla (TSLA US) shares inch higher 1.9% in premarket trading, set for a positive open after a 16% slump in two days amid several negative headlines for the stock
Stran & Co. (STRN US) shares jump as much as 43% in U.S. premarket trading, recovering ground after a sharp drop following the branding solutions firm’s IPO
Society Pass (SOPA US) shares drop as much as 54% in U.S. pre trading hours, after the loyalty tech platform had surged following its IPO in the prior session
Upstart Holdings (UPST US) plunged 19% in U.S. premarket trading after the company released 3Q earnings and 4Q forecasts; Piper Sandler ascribes share drop to “elevated investor expectations” and lack of quantification of auto opportunity
Poshmark (POSH US) shares sink 29% in U.S. premarket trading with Berenberg (buy) saying the online retail platform’s 3Q results and guidance were disappointing
PubMatic (PUBM US) surges 22% in U.S. premarket trading after the company’s 4Q sales forecast topped expectations and it posted 3Q results that Jefferies called “impressive”
FuboTV (FUBO US) shares drop 4.3% in U.S. premarket trading as a 3Q results beat for the “sports first” streaming-video platform was overshadowed by higher costs and some weakness on its ad revenue
Purple Innovation (PRPL US) slumps 31% after it cut its net revenue forecast for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate
RingCentral (RNG US) rises 22% premarket, a day after the provider of cloud-based communications services forecast 4Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
Toast (TOST US) slides after reporting financial results that included a net loss that widened compared with the same period last year

Turning back to CPI, here is a lenghtier preview courtesy of DB’s Jim Reid:

I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialized would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure.

Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core.

Shifting back to markets, we next look at Europe, where equities also recovered off opening lows with the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX recovering to trade flat. FTSE 100 outperformed, rising as much as 0.6%. Sector gains in oil & gas, utilities and insurance names are broadly offset by losses in luxury, tech, household & personal goods and travel.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a second day after data showed China’s monthly factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6% before paring its loss, with materials and IT the biggest drags. The CSI 300 Index slid as much as 1.9% before sharply paring its drop, after China’s producer and consumer price inflation numbers both exceeded forecasts. Commodity prices have soared globally this year amid expectations for a rebound from the pandemic, with energy getting a further boost from a supply crunch. Traders await Wednesday’s U.S. consumer-price report for further clues on monetary policy and economic growth.

“Eyes are now closely watching inflation as that is the next market catalyst,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. For some Asian companies “the candle is burning on both ends — with the supply chain crisis as a ceiling on revenues while obligations to expenses and liabilities remain.”  The Hang Seng turned higher in late trading as real estate developers climbed on a report that China’s bond-issuance policies may be loosened, while Tencent led a surge in tech stocks ahead of its earnings report. Vietnam and Taiwan showed small gains, while benchmarks in most other markets fell.

Japanese equities fell, following Asian peers lower after China reported worse than expected inflation. Electronics makers and trading houses were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.5%. SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 0.6% drop in the Nikkei 225. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5%, while China’s CSI 300 Index tumbled 1.1% after monthly factory-gate prices in Asia’s largest economy grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. U.S. consumer price data is scheduled to be reported later Wednesday.

“Asia is on inflation alert, fearing future costs of inputs from goods sourced from the mainland,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “It seems that investors are keen to lower exposure into the U.S. CPI data tonight.”

Australian stocks ended lower for a third session as miners tumbled: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,423.90 after a volatile session. Miners were the worst performing industry group as iron ore prices dropped, with eight of the 11 subgauges closing lower.  Bluescope was the day’s biggest laggard after iron ore plunged to a fresh 18-month low as debt troubles in China’s real-estate market deal blow after blow to prospects for steel demand. United Malt advanced after a media report said the company could be a takeover target. Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe is anchoring his bet that he won’t need to raise interest rates until 2024 on a view that unemployment needs to be lower to spur wage gains. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,022.46.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback traded higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Canadian dollar. The euro extended an Asia session loss and traded firmly below the $1.16 handle. The pound slipped against a broadly stronger dollar, and edged higher versus the euro before a speech by the BOE’s Tenreyro; market is focused on the outlook for rate hikes and traders are also turning attention back to Brexit risks, with the European Union preparing a package of retaliatory measures in case the U.K. decides to suspend parts of a trade accord. Australia’s dollar fell to a one-month low as a slump in iron ore prices prompted short-term leveraged funds to cut long positions. The kiwi declined after a preliminary New Zealand business confidence index weakened

In rates, Treasuries traded weak in the early U.S. session, following a selloff in gilts as U.K. markets start to price a higher terminal rate, bear-steepening the curve. Treasury yields are mostly cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve with 10-year around 1.475%; gilts lag by additional 1bp vs Treasuries while bunds outperform. During the Asian session, China’s CPI data beat expectations, adding to downside pressure in front eurodollars. Focal points for U.S. session include October CPI expected to show steep increase in y/y rate and final quarterly refunding auction, a $25b 30-year bond sale. Reduced-size U.S. refunding auctions conclude with $25b 30-year bond vs $27b in previous four; Tuesday’s 10- year sale tailed by 1.2bp after steep gains into the bidding deadline. Wednesday’s WI 30-year yield around 1.85% is below 30-year stops since January and ~19bp richer than last month’s, which stopped 1.3bp below the WI level at the bidding deadline.

In commodities, Crude futures drift lower: WTI drops 0.5% to trade near $83.70. Brent dips back below $85. Base metals are mixed. LME aluminum is the strongest performer; tin and lead are in negative territory. Spot gold drifts lower, losing $5 to trade near $1,826/oz

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,669.75
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 482.35
MXAP down 0.1% to 198.31
MXAPJ up 0.1% to 648.70
Nikkei down 0.6% to 29,106.78
Topix down 0.5% to 2,007.96
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,996.14
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,492.46
Sensex little changed at 60,399.20
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,423.90
Kospi down 1.1% to 2,930.17
Brent Futures little changed at $84.75/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,825.71
German 10Y yield little changed at -0.29%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.1574
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 94.13

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

The European Central Bank would risk exacerbating inequality if it were to raise interest rates before ceasing asset purchases, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel
U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinpingare are scheduled to hold a virtual summit next week, although no specific date has been set, according to people familiar with the matter
A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports
China’s inflation risks are building as producers pass on higher costs to consumers, reigniting a debate over whether the central bank has scope to ease monetary policy to support a weakening economy and potentially adding to the pressure on global consumer prices
The U.K. opposition called for a parliamentary investigation into former Conservative cabinet minister Geoffrey Cox, as the scandal over sleaze and lobbying engulfing Boris Johnson’s ruling party gains momentum

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded negatively after a lacklustre handover from Wall Street where the major indices took a break from recent advances and the S&P 500 snapped an eight-day win streak ahead of looming US inflation data. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was rangebound with early strength in financials gradually offset by losses in the commodity-related sectors and with the improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment data doing little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was subdued with exporters pressured by unfavourable currency inflows and with the list of biggest movers in the index dominated by companies that recently announced their earnings, although Nissan and NTT Data Corp were among the success stories on improved results including a surprise return to quarterly profit for the automaker. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) initially underperformed amid ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande has reportedly failed to pay coupon payments at the end of its 30-day grace period. Rating agencies have also downgraded a couple of developers and Fantasia Holdings shares fell as much as 50% on resumption from a one-month trading halt after it missed bond payments due early last month. Furthermore, tensions continued to brew on the Taiwan Strait after US lawmakers made a surprise visit to Taiwan and with China conducting combat readiness patrols in the area ahead of a potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting that could occur next week, which potentially lifted sentiment, while participants also reflected on the firmer than expected inflation data from China which showed consumer prices registered their fastest increase in more than a year and factory gate prices rose at a fresh record pace. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid the lacklustre mood in stocks and presence of the BoJ in the market for over JPY 1.3tln of JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities, although gains were capped by resistance ahead of the 152.00 focal point and a pull-back in T-notes.

Top Asian News

China SOEs Suggest Govt Ease Debt Rules in Property M&A: Cailian
Iron Ore Gloom Deepens as China Property Woes Threaten Demand
Chinese Developers Surge on Report Bond Rules May be Eased
Tencent’s ‘Other Gains’ Unexpectedly Double, Helping Profit Beat

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) have traded with little in the way of firm direction as a slew of earnings dictate the state of play amid a lack of fresh macro impulses. The handover from Asia was mostly a downbeat one with focus on firmer than expected CPI and PPI prints out of China and ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande bond holders have reportedly not received coupon payments by the end of today’s Asia-close grace period, in reference to missed coupon payments totalling USD 148.1mln. Stateside, futures are a touch softer (ES -0.2%) after cash markets saw the S&P 500 snap its eight-day winning streak during yesterday’s session. Ahead, the main event for the US will be the CPI release at 13:30GMT whilst the earnings docket continues to slow down with Disney the main standout after-hours. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed with Oil & Gas outperforming peers alongside price action in the crude complex. Banking names saw initial gains trimmed after earnings from Credit Agricole (-1.1%) and ABN AMRO (+1.9%) were unable to provide sustained support for the sector despite the former exceeding profit expectations. The retail sector has been provided a boost by Marks & Spencer (+11.4%) after the Co. reported stellar earnings and raised guidance. Elsewhere in the UK, ITV (+12.0%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after printing solid revenue metrics and a bullish revenue outlook. To the downside, Personal and Household goods lag in the wake of earnings from Adidas (-6.0%) which saw the Co.’s performance hampered by factory closures in Vietnam and product boycotts in China. Finally, Alstom (+9.6%) sits at the top of the CAC post-earnings with the Co. stating that supply chain shortages had no material impact on H1 sales.

Top European News

ECB May Aid Rich If Rates Rise Before QE Ends, Schnabel Says
Merkel Advisers Urge ECB Exit Strategy as Price Pressures Rise
King Sinks Impala Plan to Create World’s No. 1 Platinum Firm
Alstom’s Cash Drain Is Less Than Forecast; Shares Jump

In FX, the Greenback remains relatively firm in the run up to US inflation data having turned a corner of sorts on Tuesday, with the index extending beyond 94.000 following its rebound from 93.872 and inching closer to the current 94.380 w-t-d peak, at 94.221, thus far. Interestingly, the Buck has regained momentum irrespective of the benign Treasury (and global) yield backdrop, softer than forecast elements in the PPI release and most Fed officials maintaining a distance between the end of tapering and tightening. However, risk sentiment if wavering to the benefit of the Dollar more than others and the aforementioned CPI readings may be supportive if in line or above consensus. Note, initial claims are also scheduled due to tomorrow’s Veteran’s Day holiday and the final leg of supply comes via Usd 25 bn long bonds.

NZD/JPY – Ironically perhaps, the Kiwi is struggling to keep sight of 0.7100 vs its US peer on the very day that COVID-19 restrictions were eased in Auckland, and a further deterioration in NZ business sentiment alongside a fall in the activity outlook may be the catalyst, while the Yen has run into resistance again above 113.00 and is now relying on decent option expiry interest between the round number and 113.05 (1.1 bn) to keep its bull run going.
GBP/EUR/AUD/CHF – All softer against the Greenback, as Cable hovers below 1.3550, the Euro pivots 1.1575, Aussie meanders within a range just above 0.7350 amidst favourable Aud/Nzd crossflows and an improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment, and the Franc treads water inside 0.9150-00 parameters. However, Eur/Usd appears to be underpinned by heavier option expiries on the downside than upside rather than ostensibly hawkish ECB promptings from Germany’s Government advisors given 2.1 bn between 1.1575-65 and a further 1.2 bn from 1.1555-50 vs 1.5 bn at the 1.1600 strike.
CAD – The Loonie is outperforming or holding up better than other majors near 1.2400 vs its US rival even though WTI has backed off from best levels just shy of Usd 85/brl, but Usd/Cad could still be drawn to expiry interest starting at 1.2450 and stretching some way over 1.2500 in the absence of anything Canadian specific, and pending US inflation data of course.

WTI and Brent have been somewhat choppy this morning, but remain within reach of overnight ranges and well within yesterday’s parameters as fresh newsflow has been light; a performance that is similar to the morning’s directionless equity trade. Focus has been on last nights/yesterday’s events after the EIA’s STEO release seemingly lessened the likelihood of a SPR release followed by the weekly private inventory report, which printed a headline draw of 2.485M against the expected build of 2.1mln – reaction was minimal. Later today, we get the DoE equivalent for which expectations remain at a headline build of 2.13mln, but the components are expected to post draws of around 1mln. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are a touch softer on the session with the US Dollar and yields perhaps weighing, though the previous metals have once again not deviated too far from overnight parameters. On copper, prices were hampered by the Chinese inflation data though LME copper has staged a marginal recovery as the session has progressed.

US Event Calendar

8:30am: Oct. CPI YoY, est. 5.9%, prior 5.4%; CPI MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
8:30am: Oct. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
8:30am: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 269,000
8:30am: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 2.05m, prior 2.11m
8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.8%
8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -0.8%
10am: Sept. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior -1.1%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1%
2pm: Oct. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$179b, prior – $61.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After three days in hospital in traction, little Maisie has a 3-hour hip operation this morning. Showing one benefit of the pandemic, she had a zoom call with her class at school yesterday on their big screen where they all got to ask her questions. The best one apparently was one boy who put his hand up and said “will your new wheelchair have an engine?”. I was reading last night about people with Maisie’s condition (perthes) ending up playing international sport as an adult after a long recovery as a kid, including a Danish striker who played in the semi-finals of the Euros this summer and a 132kg American football player. As long as she waits a polite time after her long recovery to beat me at golf then I’ll be very happy.

Keeping my mind off things today will undoubtedly be US CPI. Given my inflationary bias views I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialised would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure.

Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core.

Staying with inflation, China’s year-on-year numbers for October surprised on the upside overnight with CPI +1.5% (consensus +1.4%, last month +0.7%), the highest since September 2020. PPI +13.5% (consensus +12.3%) was also at a 26-year high. Asian stocks are trading lower with the KOSPI (-0.86%), Shanghai Composite (-1.20%), CSI (-1.40%), the Nikkei (-0.49%) and Hang Seng (-1.20%) all down after the China numbers. Futures are pointing to a weak start in the US & Europe too with S&P 500 futures (-0.4%) and DAX futures (-0.23%) both down.

As investors look forward to today’s number, the long equity advance finally petered out yesterday as the S&P 500 (-0.35%) snapped a run of 8 successive gains. A 9th day in the green would have marked the longest winning streak since November 2004, but in the end it wasn’t to be.It also prevented an 18th up day out of the last 20 for the first time since September 1954.So reset your counters. Instead, we saw a broader risk-off move as equity indices moved lower on both sides of the Atlantic alongside a fresh rally and flattening in sovereign bond yields and curves.

So the S&P 500 (-0.35%), the NASDAQ (-0.60%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.19%) all fell back from their record highs in the previous session although the equal weighted S&P 500 was almost flat (-0.03%) showing that there wasn’t huge breadth to the US weakness. Sector dispersion was tight in the US, with materials (+0.43%) among the leaders again along with the more typically defensive utilities sector (+0.44%). Financials (-0.55%) declined on the flatter curve story but it was discretionary stocks (-1.35%) that took the biggest hit, dragged down by Tesla declining a further -11.99% and now losing c.$200bn of market cap over two days or the equivalent of 8.5 times Ford’s market cap.

The VIX index of volatility ticked up another +0.58pts to hit its highest level in nearly 4 weeks, but remains comfortably below the peaks reached during September’s 5% pullback in the S&P. By contrast, Bitcoin proved to be one of the few winners of yesterday as it increased to an all-time high of $67,734, although that was slightly down from its all-time intraday high of $68,513 earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, the question of the various Federal Reserve appointments has been occupying increasing attention and impacting bond markets, but in spite of the gossip there’s been no fresh news over the last 24 hours we didn’t already know. Earlier this week, Politico cited two sources with knowledge of the process saying that a decision would be made by Thanksgiving. But for those with longer memories, it was reported by Bloomberg back in August that people familiar with the process were saying that President Biden was likely to make his choice around Labor Day in early September, and over two months have passed since. So we’ll have to see what the real deadline is.

Nevertheless, the news from late Monday night in the US that Fed Governor Brainard had been interviewed for the Fed Chair position helped support US Treasuries, thanks to the perception that Brainard would be a more dovish pick. Regardless of whether Powell or Brainard is Chair come this time next year, the Board will likely become more dovish as President Biden replaces outgoing Governors (and fills empty seats should he choose to do so). By the close of trade, 10yr yields were down -5.4bps to 1.44%, and the 30yr yield was down -6.4bps to 1.82%, which was its lowest closing level since mid-September. Another striking thing was that the moves lower in Treasury yields were entirely driven by a fresh decline in real yields, with the 10yr real yield down -7.0bps to -1.20%, marking its lowest closing level since TIPS began trading in 1997.

Meanwhile, there was another round of curve flattening yesterday, with the 5s30s slope down -2.8bps to 73.5bps, which is the flattest it’s been since the initial market panic over the pandemic back in March 2020. For Europe it was a similar story as yields fell across the continent, and those on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps), OATs (-5.5bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all saw decent moves lower.

Ahead of today’s CPI, investors had the PPI numbers to digest yesterday, though there was little market reaction to speak of as they came in almost entirely in line with the consensus. The monthly reading was up by +0.6% in October, which in turn saw the year-on-year measure remain at +8.6%, with both of those in line with expectations. The core measure did come in a touch below, at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected), but again that left the yoy reading at +6.8% as expected.

One factor that may help on the inflation front over the coming months was a major decline in natural gas prices yesterday, with both European (-8.16%) and US (-8.26%) futures witnessing substantial declines. This wasn’t reflected elsewhere in the energy complex though, with WTI (+2.71%) and Brent crude (+1.62%) oil prices seeing a further rise following reports that the US would not need to release strategic reserves due to the demand outlook, and gold prices (+0.42%) closed at their highest levels since June.

There wasn’t a massive amount of other data yesterday, though the ZEW survey from Germany for November saw the expectations reading unexpectedly rise to 31.7 (vs. 20.0 expected), which is the first increase after 5 consecutive monthly declines. However, the current situation measure did fall to 12.5 (vs. 18.3 expected). Finally out of the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October fell to a 7-month low of 98.2 (vs. 99.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/10/2021 – 07:56Read More

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